Predictive Indicators Suggest Trump Wins 2020

For the record: I do not feel that either party accurately reflects my beliefs and I am not enthusiastic about either candidate. This article is not meant to contribute to the polarization in our country and/or endorse either candidate. Rather I am trying to understand the outcome of the election using available data. If you have data that you find helpful in predicting the outcome, please share so that we may all learn.

Trump is polling nearly exactly where he was this time 2016.

Source: Bloomberg —

The S&P is predicting a Trump win.


Trump raised more than Biden in 2020.

And as Richard Lau, professor of political science at Rutgers, says: “winning attracts money.” The money learned and is following what it believes will be the winner.


Models that accurately predict elections predict Trump wins.

  • Yale economist Ray Fair’s model, which has accurately predicted the last elections, was predicting Trump, flipped at the Pandemic, but is now too close to call.
  • Political scientist Helmut Norpoth, who teaches at Stony Brook University in New York State, has gotten “25 out of past 27 elections spot on. His model missed the close election of John Kennedy in 1960 and the election of G. W. Bush in 2000. Norpoth forecasts a 91% probability that Trump will win the 2020 election. He notes that Joe Biden has only a 9% chance of winning. This forecast is unconditional and hence not subject to any updating.” —
  • “The Knox Model concludes: President Trump should be victorious over Biden by a margin of 5.76% of the popular vote. His figuring says President Trump has an 89.6% chance of getting re-elected. This is consistent with the 91% chance that Trump is given by Helmut Norpoth using his Primary model.” —

Trump has never stopped campaigning. Biden barely started.

Trump is out and about. Biden is not.

Trump is still going door to door. Biden is not.

The county that has predicted every presidential election except 2 for 132 years is predicting Trump

Other notable signals:

We cannot rely on polls.

Incumbent Presidents generally win.

Wartime Presidents always win.

Trump and Biden are playing different games.

  • Trump is a populist leader with authoritarian tendencies who is rebuking democratic norms and standards of practice that were thought to be “self evident”.
  • To win, Biden is relying on the democratic norms and standards of practice that Trump is breaking. Biden does not have the power or influence to enforce the norms. See Presidential debate as evidence.

In the event of a disputed election:

Republicans are actively and effectively suppressing the vote

Kamala Harris is scarier than Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton to those who hated Obama and/or Hillary.

  • Racists and sexists are more vocal and empowered than in 2016.

Democrats overwhelmingly alienated themselves from millennials when they screwed Bernie out of the 2016 primary.

The news media who wrote Trump off in 2016 were all dead wrong.

The media are wrong again.



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