Predictive Indicators Suggest Trump Wins 2020
6 min readOct 15, 2020
Historically predictive measures seem to suggest that Donald Trump will be the next President.
For the record: I do not feel that either party accurately reflects my beliefs and I am not enthusiastic about either candidate. This article is not meant to contribute to the polarization in our country and/or endorse either candidate. Rather I am trying to understand the outcome of the election using available data. If you have data that you find helpful in predicting the outcome, please share so that we may all learn.
Trump is polling nearly exactly where he was this time 2016.
The S&P is predicting a Trump win.
- “a simple equity-market chart has been the best predictor of U.S. presidential elections since 1984, proving 100% accurate — and is 87% accurate since 1928 … This indicator, a chart of the S&P 500’s performance in the three-month period ahead of Election Day, which is Nov. 3 this year, has proven accurate over the past nearly four decades.” Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-stock-market-metric-has-correctly-predicted-presidential-election-results-since-1984-11598986959
- Below please note the S&P 500 as of 10/14/2020 — it is positive and therefore predicting a Trump win.
Trump raised more than Biden in 2020.
And as Richard Lau, professor of political science at Rutgers, says: “winning attracts money.” The money learned and is following what it believes will be the winner.
Models that accurately predict elections predict Trump wins.
- Yale economist Ray Fair’s model, which has accurately predicted the last elections, was predicting Trump, flipped at the Pandemic, but is now too close to call.
- Political scientist Helmut Norpoth, who teaches at Stony Brook University in New York State, has gotten “25 out of past 27 elections spot on. His model missed the close election of John Kennedy in 1960 and the election of G. W. Bush in 2000. Norpoth forecasts a 91% probability that Trump will win the 2020 election. He notes that Joe Biden has only a 9% chance of winning. This forecast is unconditional and hence not subject to any updating.” — https://switzer.com.au/the-experts/peter-switzer/and-the-winner-isdonald-trump-really/
- “The Knox Model concludes: President Trump should be victorious over Biden by a margin of 5.76% of the popular vote. His figuring says President Trump has an 89.6% chance of getting re-elected. This is consistent with the 91% chance that Trump is given by Helmut Norpoth using his Primary model.” — https://switzer.com.au/the-experts/peter-switzer/and-the-winner-isdonald-trump-really/
Trump has never stopped campaigning. Biden barely started.
- Trump held 138+ rallies since he was elected: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_post-election_Donald_Trump_rallies
- Biden has held a dozen or so…
Trump is out and about. Biden is not.
- Biden: “Since his Aug. 11 selection of California Sen. Kamala Harris as his running mate, Biden has had 22 days where he either didn’t make public appearances, held only virtual fundraisers or ventured from his Delaware home solely for church, according to an Associated Press analysis of his schedules. He made 12 visits outside of Delaware during that period, including Friday when he went to Washington and paid respects to the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg.” — https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-virus-outbreak-ruth-bader-ginsburg-delaware-elections-9282e7a189e965b124f1fc31c857903e
- Trump: “During the same time, President Donald Trump had 24 trips that took him to 17 different states, not counting a personal visit to New York to see his ailing brother in the hospital or weekend golf outings. He was hitting Florida, Georgia, Virginia and the nation’s capital on Friday alone.” — https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-virus-outbreak-ruth-bader-ginsburg-delaware-elections-9282e7a189e965b124f1fc31c857903e
Trump is still going door to door. Biden is not.
The county that has predicted every presidential election except 2 for 132 years is predicting Trump
- Residents of Vigo County in Indiana have something of a gift. Except for two notable exceptions in 1908 and 1952, every candidate they have voted for since 1888 has gone on to win the presidency. — https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-54503231
- After 132 years, Straight-party Republican voters slightly outnumbered straight-party Democrats in 2016 and 2018 for the first time since at least 1998 and perhaps ever. — https://www.tribstar.com/news/news_columns/mark-bennett-after-132-years-vigos-political-flexibility-may-be-stiffening/article_144a5215-3eb7-5771-bed8-3d8752185348.html
Other notable signals:
We cannot rely on polls.
- The national polls in 2016 that showed Hillary was ahead were dead wrong. In the intervening 4 years, poll methodology and technology has not advanced significantly to drive magnificent improvements in their predictive efficacy.
- “2 in 3 voters say it’s ‘likely’ that people lie when taking political surveys” — https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/515198-poll-66-percent-say-likely-a-significant-number-of-people-lie
Incumbent Presidents generally win.
- of the “45 who have held office, only ten presidents have failed to win re-election for a second term, when they have attempted to.” Trump is the incumbent President. — https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/how-many-us-presidents-lost-second-term-american-election-a9500026.html
Wartime Presidents always win.
- https://medium.com/@wsonn/no-u-s-president-has-ever-blown-re-election-during-wartime-7648e5413638
- We’re in a biological war with a pandemic and a cold war with Russia and China.
- To some, we’re at war with the Deep State and a Satanic Pedophile Ring that rules the world, see QAnon — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/QAnon.
Trump and Biden are playing different games.
- Trump is a populist leader with authoritarian tendencies who is rebuking democratic norms and standards of practice that were thought to be “self evident”.
- To win, Biden is relying on the democratic norms and standards of practice that Trump is breaking. Biden does not have the power or influence to enforce the norms. See Presidential debate as evidence.
In the event of a disputed election:
- Trump controls the Senate
- Trump controls the Supreme Court
- Trump controls the Judicial Branch of the US Federal Government. The Attorney General of that branch has shown fierce loyalty to the President.
- “Trump has now appointed almost a quarter of all active federal judges in the United States.” — https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/07/15/how-trump-compares-with-other-recent-presidents-in-appointing-federal-judges/
- “Trump has appointed more federal appeals court judges to date than any recent president at the same point in their presidency.” — https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/07/15/how-trump-compares-with-other-recent-presidents-in-appointing-federal-judges/
Republicans are actively and effectively suppressing the vote
- Texas reduces ballot drop offs to 1 per county: https://www.npr.org/2020/10/13/923216392/u-s-appeals-court-sides-with-texas-on-one-per-county-ballot-drop-off
- Florida blocked felons from voting: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/07/16/supreme-court-temporarily-blocks-felons-voting-florida/5442603002/
- California Republicans are issuing fake voter boxes: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/california-unofficial-ballot-drop-off-boxes
Kamala Harris is scarier than Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton to those who hated Obama and/or Hillary.
- Racists and sexists are more vocal and empowered than in 2016.
